Use of evidence and expertise in UK climate governance: the case of the Cumbrian Coal Mine.

There is an overall scientific consensus that no new coal mines can be developed, if the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rises is to be met. Yet in December 2022, following a lengthy Public Inquiry, the UK Government approved the development of Woodhouse Colliery in Cumbria. In doing so, it accepted the claim that the coal mine would be 'zero carbon' and could even result in lower global emissions overall. As this paper demonstrates, there is no independent evidence to support these claims, whilst a large body of independent evidence comes to the opposite conclusion. This paper uses the example of Woodhouse Colliery to examine the use of evidence and expertise in climate governance processes. It finds that the nature of expertise and evidence is not properly considered, and that there is ambiguity and confusion surrounding the implementation of the UK's climate legislation, particularly the Climate Change Act. It also finds that the ways in which the decision-making process solicited and assessed evidence was flawed, promoting a 'false balance'. This ambiguity and false balance provide scope for developers to argue the case for destructive developments, even while claiming adherence to climate ambitions. The paper concludes by suggesting reforms to governance processes, to provide a more transparent and credible implementation of policies to achieve the UK's net zero target. Suggested reforms include clearer rules governing fossil fuel phase-out; greater transparency and better handling of conflicts of interest in decision-making; and devolution of climate responsibilities to local areas.

Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys.

PURPOSE: Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys. METHODS: Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported. RESULTS: Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma. CONCLUSION: This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Baseline, Impact and Surveillance Trachoma Prevalence Surveys in Burundi, 2018-2021.

PURPOSE: Trachoma is an eye disease caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). It can lead to permanent vision loss. Since 2007, Burundi has included trachoma elimination as part of its fight against neglected tropical diseases and blindness. This study presents the results of trachoma baseline, impact and surveillance surveys conducted in Burundi between 2018 and 2021. METHODS: Areas were grouped into evaluation units (EU) with resident populations of between 100,000 and 250,000 people. Baseline surveys were conducted in 15 EUs, impact surveys in 2 EUs and surveillance surveys in 5 EUs; in each survey, 23 clusters of about 30 households were included. Consenting residents of those households were screened for clinical signs of trachoma. Access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) was recorded. RESULTS: A total of 63,800 individuals were examined. The prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was above the elimination threshold of 5% in a single EU at baseline, but fell below the threshold in subsequent impact and surveillance surveys. The prevalence of TT was below the 0.2% elimination threshold in ≥15-year-olds in all EUs surveyed. A high proportion (83%) of households had access to safe drinking water, while only a minority (~8%) had access to improved latrines. CONCLUSION: Burundi has demonstrated the prevalence levels necessary for trachoma elimination status. With continued effort and the maintenance of existing management plans, trachoma elimination in Burundi is within reach.

The Gambia Trachomatous Trichiasis Surveys: Results from Five Evaluation Units Confirm Attainment of Trachoma Elimination Thresholds.

INTRODUCTION: Trichiasis is present when in-turned eyelashes touch the eyeball. It may result in permanent vision loss. Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is caused by multiple rounds of inflammation associated with conjunctival Chlamydia trachomatis infection. Surveys have been designed to estimate the prevalence of TT in evaluation units (EUs) of trachoma-endemic countries in order to help develop appropriate programme-level plans. In this study, TT-only surveys were conducted in five EUs of The Gambia to determine whether further intensive programmatic action was required. METHODS: Two-stage cluster sampling was used to select 27 villages per EU and ~25 households per village. Graders assessed the TT status of individuals aged ≥15 years in each selected household, including the presence or absence of conjunctival scarring in those with TT. RESULTS: From February to March 2019, 11595 people aged ≥15 years were examined. A total of 34 cases of TT were identified. All five EUs had an age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system <0.2%. Three of five EUs had a prevalence of 0.0%. CONCLUSION: Using these and other previously collected data, in 2021, The Gambia was validated as having achieved national elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. Trachoma is still present in the population, but as its prevalence is low, it is unlikely that today's youth will experience the exposure to C. trachomatis required to precipitate TT. The Gambia demonstrates that with political will and consistent application of human and financial resources, trachoma can be eliminated as a public health problem.

Prevalence of Trachoma after Implementation of Trachoma Elimination Interventions in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: Results of Impact Surveys in 131 Evaluation Units Covering 139 Districts.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), trachomatous trichiasis (TT), water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) access in 131 evaluation units (EUs) after implementation of trachoma elimination interventions in Oromia Region, Ethiopia. METHODOLOGY: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in each EU using the World Health Organization-recommended two-stage cluster-sampling methodology. Twenty-six clusters, each with a mean of 30 households were enumerated in each EU. All residents aged ≥1 year in selected households were examined for TF and TT. Information on WASH access in surveyed households was also collected through questioning the household head and direct observation. RESULTS: A total of 419,858 individuals were enumerated in 131 EUs, of whom 396,134 (94%) were examined, 54% being female. Age-adjusted EU-level prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years ranged from 0.15% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0-0.4) to 37.5% (95% CI: 31.1-43.7). The TF prevalence was <5% in 73/131 (56%) EUs. The EU-level age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system among people aged ≥15 years ranged from 0.001% (95% CI: 0.00-0.02) to 2.2% (95% CI: 1.1-3.1) with 37/131 (28%) EUs having a prevalence <0.2%. Only 48% of all households surveyed had access to improved water sources for drinking. Approximately 96% of households did not have an improved latrine. CONCLUSION: Oromia is on the path towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Pre-validation Surveillance Surveys in 11 Evaluation Units (Covering 12 Districts) in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: Results from 2018-2020.

PURPOSE: Interventions to reduce the prevalence of trachoma and transmission of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis have been implemented in Oromia Region, Ethiopia. Following an impact survey in which the trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence in 1-9-year-olds is <5%, a surveillance survey is recommended 2 years later, without additional antibiotic treatment. We report results of surveillance surveys in 11 evaluation units (EUs) covering 12 districts in Oromia Region, to plan whether future interventions are needed. METHOD: We use a two-stage cluster-sampling cross-sectional survey design. In each EU, 26 clusters (villages) were systematically selected with probability proportional to size; from each cluster, 30 households were selected using compact segment sampling. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) access was assessed in all selected households. All residents of selected households aged ≥1 year were examined for TF and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) by certified graders. RESULT: Of 31,991 individuals enumerated, 29,230 (91% of) individuals were examined. Eight EUs had an age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds of ≥5% and seven had a TT prevalence unknown to the health system among adults aged ≥15 years of ≥0.2%. About one-third of visited households had access to an improved water source for drinking, and 5% had access to an improved latrine. CONCLUSION: Despite TF reductions to <5% at impact survey, prevalence recrudesced to ≥5% in all but three of the 11 EUs. Operational research is needed to understand transmission dynamics and epidemiology, in order to optimise elimination strategies in high-transmission settings like these.

Pharmacological cognitive enhancement and the value of achievements: An intervention.

Pharmacological cognitive enhancements nontherapeutically improve cognitive functioning, though recent critics have challenged their use by claiming that cognitive success, aided by the use of cognitive enhancement, is less valuable than otherwise. We criticize two recent responses to this objection, due to Carter and Pritchard and Wang, and propose a different response on behalf of proponents of cognitive enhancement that is shown to be more promising.

Trachoma Prevalence in Four Localities of Darfur Region, Sudan, following One Round of Antibiotic Mass Drug Administration.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds and of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in ≥15-year-olds in four endemic evaluation units (EUs) of Darfur region, Sudan, was measured more than a year after the required single round of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA). METHODS: Surveys were conducted using highly standardised, World Health Organization-recommended methodologies. Individuals aged ≥1 year, resident in selected households, were chosen for the survey using a two-stage cluster sampling process. Consenting adults and children were examined for the signs TF and TT by graders trained to international standards. Prevalence of disease in key indicator groups was calculated and weighted to the underlying population structure. RESULTS: A mean of 1,415 (range: 1,253-1,611) children aged 1-9 years were examined in each EU. The age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds in each of the four surveyed EUs was <5%. A mean of 1,139 people aged ≥15 years (range: 1,080-1,201) were examined in each EU. The estimated age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in all four EUs. In general, the proportion of households with access to improved WASH facilities was generally lower in this study than in corresponding baseline studies. CONCLUSIONS: No further MDA should be conducted in these four EUs for the next 2 years, at which point they should be re-surveyed to determine whether the prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds has remained <5%. Active TT case-finding is also not indicated. Environmental improvement and promotion of facial cleanliness measures should continue to be implemented to prevent disease recrudescence.

Baseline Prevalence of Trachoma in 13 Local Government Areas of Borno State, Nigeria.

PURPOSE: We set out to determine the baseline prevalence of trachoma in 13 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Borno State, Nigeria. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in each of 13 LGAs from 2017 to 2019, with the support of Tropical Data (TD). World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended protocols were used. With a probability-proportional-to-size systematic sampling method, 25 villages were selected per LGA in 2017 and 30 villages per LGA in 2019; in each village, 25 households were enrolled for 2017 surveys, while 30 were enrolled for 2019 surveys. All present, consenting residents aged ≥1 year were examined by TD-certified graders for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Additionally, we collected data on household-level access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities. RESULTS: One LGA (Magumeri) had TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds ≥10%; two other LGAs (Monguno and Kaga) had TF prevalence between 5.0% and 9.9%. The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system was ≥0.2% in six LGAs. The proportion of households with access to improved water sources ranged from 30% (Kwaya Kusar) to 95% (Monguno); household-level access to improved latrines was lowest in Shani (7%) and highest in Maiduguri (95%). CONCLUSION: Active TT case finding and strengthening of TT surgical services are needed in six LGAs. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antibiotics is needed in three LGAs to reduce the prevalence of active trachoma to below elimination thresholds. The trachoma elimination programme should engage WASH agencies to augment access to improved WASH facilities.

Prevalence of Trachoma in 72 Districts of Afghanistan in 2018-2019: Results of 35 Population-based Prevalence Surveys.

BACKGROUND: To determine where interventions are needed to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem, prevalence data are needed. We aimed to generate baseline population-based data on trachoma prevalence in suspected-endemic areas of Afghanistan. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based prevalence surveys designed according to World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations were conducted in 35 evaluation units (EUs) covering 72 districts. In selected households, all resident individuals aged ≥1 year were examined for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) according to the WHO simplified trachoma grading system. Water, sanitation and hygiene access was assessed in households of survey participants. RESULTS: 104,104 people aged ≥1 year were examined, including 43,774 children aged 1-9 years and 46,439 people aged ≥15 years. The age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was ≥5% in 3 EUs, with the highest EU TF prevalence being 7.8%. The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in all EUs. The majority of households had access to an improved water source within 30 minutes of the house. However, only a minority of households had an improved latrine and/or a handwash station. CONCLUSIONS: Trachoma is not a public health problem in the majority of EUs surveyed. However, antibiotic mass drug administration, promotion of facial cleanliness and environmental improvement (the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy) are needed for trachoma elimination purposes in three of the EUs surveyed in Afghanistan.

Population Prevalence of Trachoma in Nine Rural Non-Indigenous Evaluation Units of Brazil.

PURPOSE: To assess the contemporary prevalence of trachoma in Brazil's non-indigenous population, surveys of those thought to be at greatest risk of disease were conducted. METHODS: Rural census tracts of non-indigenous population from nine mesoregions were selected to compose the survey evaluation units (EUs) by considering previously endemic municipalities at greatest risk of trachoma. In each of the nine EUs, we conducted a population-based prevalence survey. Every resident of selected households aged ≥1 year was examined for trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT). Additionally, data were collected on household-level access to water, sanitation, hygiene (WASH) and education. RESULTS: A total of 27,962 individuals were examined across nine EUs. The age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was <5% in each EU. The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in eight EUs; in one EU, it was 0.22%. The median number of households surveyed per EU with access to an improved drinking water source within a 30-minute roundtrip of the house was 66%. School attendance was >99% of surveyed children. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of TF was well below the target for elimination as a public health problem in all EUs. Because EUs surveyed were selected to represent the highest-risk non-indigenous areas of the country, TF prevalence is unlikely to be ≥5% in non-indigenous populations elsewhere. In one EU, the prevalence of TT was above the target threshold for elimination. Further investigation and possibly improvement in TT surgical provision are required in that EU.

Baseline Prevalence of Trachoma in 21 Local Government Areas of Adamawa State, North East Nigeria.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of trachoma in each of the 21 local government areas (LGAs) of Adamawa State, Nigeria. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in each of the 21 LGAs of Adamawa State between 2017 and 2019. With the support of Tropical Data (TD), surveys were planned and implemented in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. A two-stage cluster sampling technique was used in each LGA, 25 or 30 clusters were selected with a probability of selection proportionate to cluster size, and in each of these clusters, 25 or 30 households were enrolled for the survey. All residents aged 1 year and older within selected households were examined by TD-certified graders for trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Additionally, data were collected on household water and sanitation access. RESULTS: All 21 LGAs had TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds below 5%. The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in people aged ≥15 years was ≥0.2% in three of the 21 LGAs. Access to improved water and sanitation facilities was <80% in the majority of the surveyed LGAs. Only 12 of the 21 LGAs had ≥50% household-level improved latrine access, and only Yola North had ≥80% household-level improved latrine access. CONCLUSION: There is no need for mass treatment with antibiotics for trachoma elimination purposes in any of these LGAs. There is a need for active TT case finding and provision of community-based TT surgical services in three LGAs. Furthermore, engagement with water and sanitation agencies is needed to augment access to improved water and sanitation facilities across the State; this will help to avoid the recrudescence of active trachoma in the State.

Prevalence of Trachoma from 66 Impact Surveys in 52 Woredas of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' and Sidama Regions of Ethiopia, 2017-2019.

PURPOSE: Trachoma is endemic in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP) and Sidama regions of Ethiopia. We aimed to measure the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children aged 1 - 9 years and the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system among people aged ≥15 years following interventions for trachoma in 52 woredas of SNNP and Sidama regions. METHODS: From 2017 - 2019, 66 two-stage cluster sampling cross-sectional population-based surveys were carried out in 52 woredas (third-level administrative divisions) using a standardized World Health Organization-recommended survey methodology. This included one impact survey in 40 woredas, two consecutive impact surveys in 10 woredas and three consecutive impact surveys in two woredas. Water, sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) access was assessed using a modified version of the United Nations Children's Fund/WHO Joint Monitoring Programme questionnaire. RESULTS: By the end of this survey series, 15 (23%) of the woredas had met the active trachoma elimination threshold (TF prevalence <5%) and 12 (18%) had met the TT threshold (TT ≤ 0.2%). Regarding WASH coverage, 20% of households had access to an improved drinking water source within a 30-min journey and 3% had an improved latrine. There was strong evidence that TF was less common in 4 - 6-year-olds and 7 - 9-year-olds than 1 - 3-year-olds. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings, further antibiotic mass drug administration is required in 37 woredas and active TT case finding is needed in 40 woredas. In these surveys, access to WASH facilities was very low; WASH improvements are required.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, after Implementation of the SAFE Strategy: Results of Four Population-Based Surveys.

PURPOSE: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds in Benishangul Gumuz (BGZ) region, Ethiopia. This will help to assess progress towards the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem and determine the need for future interventions against trachoma in the region. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based trachoma prevalence surveys were conducted in four evaluation units (EUs) of BGZ using World Health Organization-recommended survey methodologies. Individuals were examined for clinical signs of trachoma. Household access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities (WaSH) was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 11,778 people aged ≥1 year were examined. The prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was <5% in three EUs and ≥5% in one EU. The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in people aged ≥15-years was ≥0.2% in all four EUs. The proportion of households with an improved drinking water source within a 30-minute round-trip ranged from 27-60%. The proportion of households with an improved latrine ranged from <1-6%. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical interventions for TT are required in all EUs in BGZ. One annual round of mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin is required in one EU before resurvey to reassess progress in lowering TF prevalence below the WHO elimination threshold of 5% in 1-9-year-olds. MDA should be stopped in the other three EUs and trachoma surveillance surveys should be conducted at least 24 months after the surveys described here. Ongoing strengthening of WaSH infrastructure may help sustain the low prevalence of trachoma.

Conjunctival Scarring, Corneal Pannus, and Herbert's Pits in Adolescent Children in Trachoma-endemic Populations of the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.

BACKGROUND: In the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, the sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) is common, but ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis is not. It is therefore debatable whether azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA), the recommended antibiotic treatment strategy for trachoma's elimination as a public health problem, is necessary in this setting. We set out to estimate what proportion of adolescents were at risk of progression of trachomatous scarring. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was undertaken of all children aged 10-14 years resident in communities identified as high-TF clusters during previous population-based mapping. Graders examined children for clinical evidence of trachomatous scarring, pannus, and Herbert's pits (HPs) or limbal follicles in both eyes. A dried blood spot was collected from each child and tested for antibodies to C. trachomatis. RESULTS: A total of 492 children in 24 villages of the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu were examined. In total, 35/492 (7%) of children had limbal signs (pannus and/or HPs) plus any conjunctival scarring. And 9/492 (2%) had limbal signs and moderate or severe conjunctival scarring; 22% of children were anti-Pgp3 seropositive. CONCLUSIONS: Few adolescents here are at risk of future complications from trachoma, supporting the conclusion that further antibiotic MDA is not currently required for trachoma elimination purposes in these settings.

Building a Social Mandate for Climate Action: Lessons from COVID-19.

The COVID-19 imposed lockdown has led to a number of temporary environmental side effects (reduced global emissions, cleaner air, less noise), that the climate community has aspired to achieve over a number of decades. However, these benefits have been achieved at a massive cost to welfare and the economy. This commentary draws lessons from the COVID-19 crisis for climate change. It discusses whether there are more sustainable ways of achieving these benefits, as part of a more desirable, low carbon resilient future, in a more planned, inclusive and less disruptive way. In order to achieve this, we argue for a clearer social contract between citizens and the state. We discuss how COVID-19 has demonstrated that behaviours can change abruptly, that these changes come at a cost, that we need a 'social mandate' to ensure these changes remain in the long-term, and that science plays an important role in informing this process. We suggest that deliberative engagement mechanisms, such as citizens' assemblies and juries, could be a powerful way to build a social mandate for climate action post-COVID-19. This would enable behaviour changes to become more accepted, embedded and bearable in the long-term and provide the basis for future climate action.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Pakistan: Results of 42 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

Purpose: Previous phases of trachoma mapping in Pakistan completed baseline surveys in 38 districts. To help guide national trachoma elimination planning, we set out to estimate trachoma prevalence in 43 suspected-endemic evaluation units (EUs) of 15 further districts.Methods: We planned a population-based trachoma prevalence survey in each EU. Two-stage cluster sampling was employed, using the systems and approaches of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. In each EU, residents aged ≥1 year living in 30 households in each of 26 villages were invited to be examined by trained, certified trachoma graders. Questionnaires and direct observation were used to evaluate household-level access to water and sanitation.Results: One EU was not completed due to insecurity. Of the remaining 42, three EUs had trichiasis prevalence estimates in ≥15-year-olds ≥0.2%, and six (different) EUs had prevalence estimates of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds ≥5%; each EU requires trichiasis and TF prevalence estimates below these thresholds to achieve elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. All six EUs with TF prevalences ≥5% were in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Household-level access to improved sanitation ranged by EU from 6% to 100%. Household-level access to an improved source of water for face and hand washing ranged by EU from 37% to 100%.Conclusion: Trachoma was a public health problem in 21% (9/42) of the EUs. Because the current outbreak of extremely drug-resistant typhoid in Pakistan limits domestic use of azithromycin mass drug administration, other interventions against active trachoma should be considered here.

Estimating the Intracluster Correlation Coefficient for the Clinical Sign "Trachomatous Inflammation-Follicular" in Population-Based Trachoma Prevalence Surveys: Results From a Meta-Regression Analysis of 261 Standardized Preintervention Surveys Carried Out in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria.

Sample sizes in cluster surveys must be greater than those in surveys using simple random sampling in order to obtain similarly precise prevalence estimates, because results from subjects examined in the same cluster cannot be assumed to be independent. Therefore, a crucial aspect of cluster sampling is estimation of the intracluster correlation coefficient (ρ): the degree of relatedness of outcomes in a given cluster, defined as the proportion of total variance accounted for by between-cluster variation. In infectious disease epidemiology, this coefficient is related to transmission patterns and the natural history of infection; its value also depends on particulars of survey design. Estimation of ρ is often difficult due to the lack of comparable survey data with which to calculate summary estimates. Here we use a parametric bootstrap model to estimate ρ for the ocular clinical sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF) among children aged 1-9 years within population-based trachoma prevalence surveys. We present results from a meta-regression analysis of data from 261 such surveys completed using standardized methods in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria in 2012-2015. Consistent with the underlying theory, we found that ρ increased with increasing overall TF prevalence and smaller numbers of children examined per cluster. Estimates of ρ for TF were independently higher in Ethiopia than in the other countries.

Unimproved water sources and open defecation are associated with active trachoma in children in internally displaced persons camps in the Darfur States of Sudan.

PURPOSE: To estimate the proportion of children with trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and adults with trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in the Darfur States of Sudan and to evaluate associated risk factors. METHODS: IDP camps were identified from government census data. We conducted a subanalysis of data collected in these camps during 2014-2015 as part of surveys covering 37 districts of the Darfur States within the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. A random-effects hierarchical model was used to evaluate factors associated with TF in children or TT in adults. RESULTS: Thirty-six IDP camps were represented in the survey data, in which 1926 children aged 1-9 y were examined, of whom 38 (8%) had TF. Poor sanitation, younger age and living in a household that purchased water from a vendor were associated with TF in children aged 1-9 y. Of 2139 individuals examined aged ≥15 y, 16 (0.7%) had TT. TT was strongly independently associated with being older and living alone. CONCLUSION: Trachoma is found at low levels in these camps, but still at levels where intervention is needed. Disease elimination in conflict-related settings presents a unique challenge for the trachoma community, and may require an innovative approach. Understanding how best to undertake trachoma elimination interventions in these areas should be prioritized.